Worth reading - Gaza edition

From Col. Lang - a very interesting post on the structure of the IDF.

Also, lost in all of the moral analysis of the current mess (why must San Diego always get bombed by Tijuana in analogies?) is how Israel benefits from it's current engagement. The rocket attacks were bearable for quite some time - and no one goes to war out of principle anymore. The explanation of doing it while Bush is still in office doesn't seem to be that credible, Obama hasn't said anything different than Bush 43, and he has something to prove, so I imagine he would be even more agreeable to Israeli action than Bush (and as a reminder, Bush stopped the Israelis from bombing Iran a few months ago).

I suppose the War Nerd's explanation of the attacks being used to weaken Hamas so Fatah could eventually win their civil war has the most credence, but that has problems too.

Friday link clearing

• Sarah Silverman, Obama, and the Jewish vote - not safe for work, but worth watching
• Small Banks are doing fine it seems
• Israel asked Bush for permission to bomb Iran, and it seems Bush refused! Good. No point in throwing away all the gains in Iraq
• Making money twice - worth reading
• Who serves in the military? Well worth reading.
• Jetpacks!
• The difference between Sunni and Shia in short form
  
• And this little nugget - via Ezra Klein

  Dear American:
  
  I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.
  
  I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.
  
  I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.
  
  This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.
  
  Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.
  
  Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

  
  

The Israel lobby complex

A question to my many readers

I recently watched Hillary Clinton basically state that her administration would treat an attack on Israel as an attack on the United States. Charles Krauthammer makes a similar proposal in a column here. He is kind enough to give some reason as to why the US should assume this burden, specifically

it will be said, because Israel could retaliate on its own. The problem is that Israel is a very small country with a small nuclear arsenal that could be destroyed in a first strike. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. created vast and invulnerable submarine fleets to ensure a retaliatory strike and, thus, deterrence. The invulnerability and unimaginably massive size of this American nuclear arsenal would make a U.S. deterrent far more potent and reliable than any Israeli facsimile -- and thus far more likely to keep the peace.

If I remember correctly, Israel has nuclear missile submarines, which would make a successful Iranian first strike unlikely.

The question is, does anyone seriously expect that Iran would be willing to gamble on a sixty percent change of annihilation, but not a 100% chance? Realistically that would be more like a 90% chance due to American political wavering, but let's call it 100% for arguments sake.

The obvious answer to this is "The Iranians are irrational" which is a claim not borne out be history. They've been quite skillful players of brinkmanship for years now. Evil and harmful yes, irrational and stupid, definitely not. Is there really that much value to pandering to the American fans of Israel?

A second Israel

I've been in favor of moving American troops to Kuwait and Kurdistan and letting the various Iraqi factions settle itself, with American troops playing Spoiler for our own interests. Upon further thought I'm not so sure.

Kuwait isn't really a factor, but Kurdistan is. Assuming that the Kurds do secede (which seems likely) we would be the guarantor of last resort for an ethnically homogeneous enclave, much like we are with Israel. While supporting the Israelis is perhaps the right thing to do, it's doubtful that the relationship is worthwhile on a cost benefit basis. That raises the question, do we really need another exposed ally with little to offer surrounded by hostile countries? Supporting the Kurds would alienate the surrounding countries and be a considerable financial and troop expense.

Then again, it does put another outpost of democracy and freedom (for the region) in the area and the second Israel isn't the same as the first.

Decisions, decisions.

Monday link roundup

• An in-depth examination on how to build an energy efficient house
• Robot snipers in Israel
• Strobist begins Lighting 102
• No one thinks seriously about alternative energy. Check out this post from TreeHugger "New Battery Pushed Prius to 125 MPG". It's a great idea and invention, but it's a plug-in hybrid. The motion is coming from the power grid. Granted electricity is usually more efficient than gasoline, but that's like saying that a diesel engine gets infinite mileage because it doesn't burn any gasoline at all.
  

Funny and strange quotes

From this rather odd article about the future of Israel

As Peter O’Toole said as Lawrence of Arabia in the movie of that title, “Nothing is written.” However, it seems clear how to bet. As so often in history, bet on the horrible outcome.

I think the post is flawed as it assumes that the current Israeli situation will not change by several orders of magnitude in qualitative ways as the decades roll by. Of course, there is no reason for the changes to be good, but current trends seldom hold before Bit Rot settles in. Worth reading

Saturday rapid fire

• Thought crime in High School writing class -

  Allen Lee, 18, faces two disorderly conduct charges over the creative-writing assignment, which he was given on Monday in English class at the northern Illinois school.

  Students were told to "write whatever comes to your mind. Do not judge or censor what you are writing," according to a copy of the assignment. This is the first salvo in the education establishments overreaction I suppose.

  I wonder how far it will spread. It's bad enough that 99% of corporate writing is so measured and passive it might as well be written in Latin, now it's going to start even earlier.

• An interesting profile of international arms dealers. This one is worthy of a James Bond villain status.
  
• An Israeli newspaper ranks the US presidential candidates in terms of their willingness to defend Israel. Curiously lacking is the American counterpart to their prime ministers.
  

Monday rapid fire

• Prediction Markets
• Shutter Speed
• Carter: Bush Israel's 'worst ally' in D.C. - this is American Politics at its most vapid. Two parties, or in this particular case, one party, arguing over who can better serve a foreign government? Is it so much to ask what we get out of it? Israel does have a knack for drawing the proper enemies, but this is a country that has spied on us and sank one of our warships, must we be this servile?
• Jack Handey's Art Ideas
• The Pickin' Barn
• Half of U.S. Still Believes Iraq Had WMD - Journalism at it's most vapid. It's bad enough the author uses the horrid acronym "WMD" but then he contradicts himself in the article. Half of the US still believes that Iraq had WMD, chemical weapons in this case, because they did, just not in meaningful quantity. The poll gave an accurate answer, but the author uses that as a mini rant, and it's billed as news, not commentary.
  

Interesting thoughts from Belmont

These musings do make the Israeli strategy a bit more rational. To wit:

what is the most important component of Hezbollah's power in the south? Again the answer is easy. It is the Hezbollah cadres themselves. Hezbollah's most precious possession isn't Katyushas, long-range rockets, night vision goggles or antitank missiles or electronic equipment. It is the trained core of its military force. Equipment can be replaced but Hezbollah's cadres represent an expensive, almost irreplaceable investment. In them resides the organizational knowledge of Nasrallah's organization. It embodies man-decades of operational experience against Israel. Rockets can be replaced. The stars of Hezbollah's operational force are less expendable.
...
The Hezbollah are doing the single most stupid thing imaginable for a guerilla organization. They are fighting to keep territory. Oh, I know that this will be justified in terms of "inflicting casualties" on the Israelis. But the Hez are probably losing 10 for every Israeli lost. A bad bargain for Israel you say? No. A bad bargain for Hezbollah to trade their terrorist elite for highly trained but nevertheless conventional infantry.

That was why Spartacus' revolt against the Romans failed as well.

Quotes of the moment

From the comments of a vitriolic post about an Israeli flag being waved at some soccer game

This is why the entire Arab world can barely make a good washing machine and we send people into space for fun.

And via Jane Galt (original post about second languages)

I'm a poor programmer whose solution to execution failures is type louder and more slowly.

Politics in the style of Runyon

From the Belmont Club, channeling Damon Runyon

The Gaza withdrawal may turn out to be far more dangerous to the Palestinian Authority than to Israel because it unleashed powerful forces which Abbas has been unable to control. It now threaten to drag him like a man whose foot has been caught in the traces of runaway horses. The sad trainwreck unfolds. Hamas blows up its own parade through stupidity. Unable to lose face, Hamas rockets Israel from Gaza. Sharon, loathe to concede the Gaza withdrawal may have endangered Israel, will kill a score of terrorist leaders and hit the Palestinians in the pocketbook to show he's tough. That will get the 'militants' all jumping up and down, while the PA teeters like a house of cards in a Category 4 hurricane and the peace movement hums an inspirational hymn indistinguishable from the shrieking of the wind.

Low expectations

From the article Palestinians Celebrate Freedom in Gaza

Palestinians torched empty synagogues in the Morag, Kfar Darom and Netzarim settlements, as well as a Jewish seminary in Neve Dekalim. Later, a Palestinian bulldozer knocked down the walls of the Netzarim synagogue.

In Netzarim, two young Palestinians waving flags stomped on the smoldering debris outside the synagogue, and others took turns hitting the building with a large hammer.

"They (Israelis) destroyed our homes and our mosques. Today it is our turn to destroy theirs," said a man in Neve Dekalim who gave his name only as Abu Ahmed.

Israel removed some 8,500 Gaza settlers from their homes in 21 settlements last month, and razed homes and most buildings in the communities. However, the Israeli Cabinet decided Sunday to leave 19 synagogue buildings intact, drawing complaints from the Palestinians and criticism from the United States.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the Israeli decision "puts the Palestinian Authority into a situation where it may be criticized for whatever it does."

So this behavior was expected and excused before the fact.

As Tom Palmer remarked about Chechnya, what do you do when it's too late to do the right thing?

Thoughts on Gaza

For the past few generations Israel has occupied the Gaza strip (and other areas) and the Palestinians have been doing their intifada and generally becoming resentful. Now the Israelis are pulling out and leaving them their own area. The generally cited reason is that this shorten the Israeli security perimeter and makes it easier to defend.

After decades of occupation the main Palestinian "natural" skill would seem to be rock throwing and suicide bombing. What if the Israeli end game is to give the Palestinians what they want, and then let the various groups compete for dominance in bloody fashion? This keeps them divided and busy for years and the Israelis could offer weapons and intelligence and weapons to keep the fight going (like they supposedly did during the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s). All this would leave Israel relatively secure with the Palestinians taking themslves out of the picture.

Just a thought.

Repeating News

This is now the third appearance of the Muslim vs. teh Unclean meme, this time taking the form "Calif. Nat'l Guard Sorry About Pig-Blood Flier". Oddly enough I've seen it about the same time every year.

The gist of the story is that mixing suicide bombers blood with an "unclean" animal would discourage the suicide bomber from killing people. For example, a bus in Israel could have a bucket of pig's blood on board. Were the bus to explode the unclean blood would forever taint the suicide bomber's final remains, and therefore, no paradise and 72 virgins for him.

Naturally, Snopes has an article on this. Short summary, it's a very improbable solution.

The desire for simplistic solutions to complex problems has spawned several widely-circulated messages of late which seek to transform a fight against terrorism to the easily-manageable level of a horror film or a comic strip. Today's popular notion is the concept that a pig is to a Muslim as a crucifix is to a vampire — simply arm yourself with a porker, and you can use it to render even the most fanatical terrorist helpless, sending him cowering in fear lest he come into contact with anything porcine.

Such notions reduce an extremely widespread and diverse religion — and the people who follow it — to a monolithic entity with a single set of beliefs and rules to which everyone adheres. Islam has a variety of sects and sub-sects just as Christianity has a multiplicity of denominations; assuming that all "Muslims" believe and behave identically is like assuming that all Catholics and Baptists believe and behave identically because both of the latter groups are "Christians." In one sense, messages such as the ones quoted above could be considered as silly as Muslims' proclaiming that a good way to throw the USA into disarray would be to "bomb" America with juicy steaks on Fridays, because "Americans are Christians," and "everyone knows Christians who eat meat on Fridays go to Hell." Never mind that not all Americans are Christians, that not all Christians are Catholics, that not all Catholics believe in exactly the same things, that not all Catholics are equally religious or faithful, and that even the "rules" of Catholicism have changed over time.

I would quibble over the user of the term "simplistic" when what is actually meant is "simple". Of course people would want simple solutions over complicated ones.

Then again, as I prowl the Snopes site, I see this legend, marked true: "An article from The Jewish Journal describes Israeli doctors' providing blood to Palestinians who were injured at Jenin but refused to be given "Jewish blood.""

It's Hebrew day here in Steveland

For some reason I've been reading up on Judaism and Israel today. That led me to WikiPedia and then to the "Battle of Jenin". The eye catching thing part (apart from the estimated death toll dropping from 3,000 to 56) was this:

Many Western news agencies reported these claims uncritically and without confirmation. However, on April 30, Kadoura Mousa Kadoura, the director of Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement for the northern West Bank, dropped the death toll to 56 people, including armed combatants. Further investigation by the United Nations and international reporters found that only 52 Palestinians where killed in the operation, 22 of whom were civilians. [8] (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2165272.stm)

On May 2, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) filmed adult Palestinians carrying out a mock funeral procession. The funeral was fake and the "body" was able to get up and walk. On May 8th, 2002, The Palestinian Society for the Protection of Human Rights and the Environment (http://www.lawsociety.org) issued a press release [9] (http://www.lawsociety.org/Press/Preleases/2002/May/may8.html) stating that it was only Palestinian children playing "funeral". Israeli groups reject this claim outright.

Children playing funeral?

The worst job ever

The worst job of all time is dead body smell tester. In Israel the IDF is training their search and rescue people to do their jobs in the presence of dead body scent.

Could you imagine the product testing for this? The article says that they

Rescue and medical professionals, who are familiar with the stench from personal experience, tested several chemical and organic substances before finding the exact "smell of death

That must have been awful couple of days. "How about this one? Too alive This one? Too dead. This one, that's perfect, its smells just like death!"