Similar to the “Now” page – here is a running list of things I find likely that my friends do not find likely. They might all be totally wrong, or unprovable, but in any case, here they are

Long term vitamin deficiencies in early childhood cause most mental illnesses – and those deficiencies are the result of clean drinking water – i.e. we’ve evolved drinking filthy well and river water and by drinking clean water we’re not getting some combination of minerals that our bodies need. I find this a worthy trade off, but a tradeoff nonetheless.

Germany could have beaten the Soviets in WW2 (I’m not saying this is desirable, but possible) – here is how it could have happened.

  1. Give up on all of the nazi race stuff and maintain the SS as purely his private army – keeping the SS in it’s original form is both evil (not a priority for him) and wasteful (which would be a priority)
  2. “Ukrainians and Byelorussians, We come as liberators” – not perfect, but way better than what they did – it would have reduced partisan activity and increased native converts to their ranks – they would only have to mean it for a few years
  3. Either gotten Japan to declare war on the Soviets (unlikely) or pushed for peace with the US after Pearl Harbor – either of which would have reduced American activity either a little or a lot – frame the war as a conflict between civilization and communism. The Soviet Union would have gotten far less aid in any case and perhaps the US would not have declared war.
  4. Scrap rocketry and concentrate on jet fighters
  5. Concentrate on eliminating the Soviet Rail system
  6. Do not make a big push for Stalingrad, the city was not of that much value – just seize the oil fields directly
  7. Push for peace with England and be willing to give up a lot of whatever the British wanted
  8. Develop a good medium range bomber – and concentrate on both rail and communications
  9. Be willing to stop a little after Moscow and wait for Stalin’s regime to fall apart
  10. Be prepared to be a benevolent dictator in the occupied areas for at least five years, or until the Soviets collapse
  11. Be willing to cut Japan into the territorial spoils after some degree of victory

Historians will give the role of disease equal footing with the role of the military in future histories. They will cover plagues in much more detail and see them as the focal points in history. They will also credit climate with more of a role, but will give disease much, much more attention.