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Adage of the day
The dry fisherman and the wet hunter wear the same expression.
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Quote of the day from Freeman Dyson
I might have posted this before – but it stands true –
Progress in science is often built on wrong theories that are later corrected. It is better to be wrong than to be vague.
The logic being that if wrong you’ve at least eliminated one possibility in the process of figuring things out – if you’re vague you haven’t.
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Election 2020 predictions
My current thoughts are that Biden takes it – by a slight margin – less than what is currently predicted.
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The best cases for Trump and Biden
For Trump:
- Regulation – it’s down, hopefully that will continue
- Pushback against the lockdown everywhere urge. A nuanced view is the one to have, Trump seems to come closest to that, depressingly.
- Foreign Policy – Trump is the most peaceful president since Jimmy Carter – which is of great surprise
- A profound lack of ambition and desire for a place in history – mixed with decline in energy due to age means that the pros/deep state are in charge – we’ve survived that for quite a while.
For Biden
- State capacity
- Should Biden be elected then the American effort will become a giant success, and the lockdown efforts can get a bit more intelligent
- A general cooling down of mood
- Similar to #4 above decline in energy due to age means that the pros/deep state are in charge – we’ve survived that for quite a while.