Monthly Archives: October 2006

Giving credit where credit is due

After the 2004 election I was quite vocal about wanting a viable second party. I will say the Democrats have come quite a long way since then. If you take the new blood on the scene in Jim Webb and Harold Ford you will find very little of the baby-boomer narcissism and navel gazing that affected most of the 2004 candidates.

There is starting to be a concensus plan on Iraq among Democrats as well, in the form of partition. I think that is the option we will take (along with looking the other way on ethnic cleansing) once all the others are exhausted, which should be in around 10 months or so.

All that being said, none of them are any closer to me ideologically (except for the partition, which I do like) than the Republicans but new blood will probably not be as talented at corruption as the current folks.

Not that I think the dems will take the House or Senate, but I do think they will take some seats.

Aspects of the conventional wisdom

  • Oil is the lifeblood of the Global Economy – I remember paying 94 cents a gallon in October of 2001, to $3.05 this summer, to $1.98 today (yes I realize that the price of oil does not track gas exactly, but it’s close). Given that the economy of the oil consuming world has growing mildly (Europe), moderately (the US), and highly (China and India), it would seem that this is simply not true, or if true, not meaningful.
  • The invasion of Iraq will turn the Muslim world against the US. Given that it’s been three and a half years, and all of the opposition is still based in Iraq (with some degree of foreign investment in people and capital) this would seem not to be meaningful.