Monthly Archives: November 2018

Quote from Tom Lehrer

(Discussing his sort of retirement from music, written from memory)

I’ve always lived by the principle that if you’ve seen Cincinnati you don’t need to see Cleveland

Meaning that if something is no longer fun, then stop.

2018 Election Results

So, it seems my earlier predictions where wrong by a bit.  The Dems have taken the house, and they’re doing better in the Senate than I would have thought.  Stacie Abrams does not seem to have won the governor’s race, but has come very close, which is quite remarkable for a Democrat in GA.  Voter turnout was way, way higher too, in contrast, as of 6:40 AM the day after the totals are

Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Brian Kemp GOP 1,962,547 50%
Stacey Abrams Dem 1,887,161 49%
Ted Metz Lib 36,706 1%
Total 3,886,414

In contract, in 2014 the results were

Georgia gubernatorial election, 2014[16]

Republican Nathan Deal – 1,345,237 –  52.75%
Democratic Jason Carter –  1,144,794  – 44.89%
Libertarian Andrew Hunt –  60,185 2.36%
Total 2,550,216

A difference of 1.4 million votes in only four years which is rather staggering.

 

Midterm Elections – 2018 picks

Georgia – Although the Trump wing of the right has traditionally been undercounted by the pollsters, I’m going to go with Abrams here.  The get out the vote effort is exceptional for the Democratic party, and she has avoided any unforced errors.  Combine that with an uninspiring Republican candidate and I think she takes it by a nose, although the libertarian candidate, Ted Metz could be a possible spoiler.  Also, the Trump style tactics seem to work only for Trump, so there’s that.

Everywhere Else – I think the Republican’s do better than expected, and there is no blue wave.  The Democrats seem to have nothing to offer other than hyperventilating anxiety, and nothing to counter a (currently) strong economy, whereas the Republicans have at least that, and can minimize Trump more or less at will.

 

I’ll update this after election to see how I did.