01
Dec 16

Trump, lack of strategists, and OODA loop

One unremarked advantage Trump had was the lack of political “infrastructure”, or the hordes of pollsters and consultants that surround candidates.  That let him to push, not necessarily better ideas, but to float a tremendous number of ideas to the public at a rapid clip, keep the popular ones, ditch the unpopular and build a coalition off of what people liked at the time.  All without having to vet everything through interest groups and campaign infrastructure.

Short version – he had a much faster OODA loop for his marketing.

In that sense – I think he will be a role model for other politicians – it’s eerily similar to an Adwords campaign now that I think about it.


16
Nov 16

Quote of the day

From Garrett Hardin

Extremism appears to lead to clear-cut decisions, whereas moderation embarrasses us by emphasizing problems that are yet to be solved.


14
Nov 16

In light of the recent election

This post has come to mind – peak religion.


11
Nov 16

Predictions in retrospect

My Predictions in retrospect – it seems I was quite wrong – there was a hidden trump surge, either that, or pollsters underestimate the number of people living in low density areas.
The real surprise was how LOW the voter turnout was, Trump got fewer votes than Romney, and Clinton will wind up with almost 10 MILLION FEWER votes than Obama in 2008. And that is after 4 and 8 years of population growth, respectively. It would seem to point to more of a Clinton loss than a Trump victory, which is probably what history will say about the matter. Clinton really was exceptionally unpopular with Democrats, or Obama was exceptionally popular with Democrats (or both). Article here
It would seem that the popular media world (mirrored largely on Facebook) and the rest of the world do not track each other that well.
 
And on a happier notes – voters chose not to return Joe Arpaio to Office and marijuana prohibition was largely struck down in several states!

08
Nov 16

Predictions for Election 2016

  1. Clinton wins both Electoral College (by 80 points) and popular vote (by 5%) – there will be no hidden wave of Trump surge
  2. Republicans maintain control of the legislative branch
  3. A new Supreme Court justice is confirmed within the next 12 months with little pageantry
  4. Both of them have major health events in the next four years (we forget how old they are, and neither seem at all health conscious)
  5. The libertarians get 7% of the popular vote (and could have had much, much more)
  6. The Green Party gets less than 1%
  7. Evan McMullan (sp) becomes the new standard bearer of the party
  8. Utah becomes the bellwether for the 2020 campaign

Yours?


24
Oct 16

Shadow people

At the zoo


16
Sep 16

Quote of the day

From this book review

It is plain that the core of his identity, his heart of hearts, is not that of a man who is black. It is that of a man who knows a whole lot more about things than you do and is intent on setting you straight, at length if necessary, if you’d only listen. Take a look at those glasses, that awkward grin, those sweater-vests, and consider his deep interest in Albert Einstein and other geniuses: Thomas Sowell is less an African American than a Nerd American.


08
Sep 16

My munchkin


19
Aug 16

The coolest thing you will see today

Google tours Rio de Janeiro’s favelas.


28
Jul 16

Let’s Kill Hitler

I recently thought of a new book idea, science fiction no less – to wit:

Many people have often talked about going back in time to the 1920s to kill Hitler – this one comes to mind.  The time traveler always goes back in time before Hitler has committed any crimes.  People see the willingness to murder an (at the time) innocent person in cold blood as a sign of virtue, or resolve, or whatever.

Say this time machine exists.  Say also that time travel results in a reboot of history at the moment of travel.

Suppose WWII never happened, but time travel did – say you have someone totally wanting to commit cold blooded murder, but wants to do it in the past to escape capture.  Say that person goes back in time, commits many murders, but does not make it back to the time machine in time and gets caught.  Say that person goes on a killing spree of historical proportions, but of course no one gets that he is a time traveler from the future.  The state executes the serial killer Adolph Hitler.  History Reboots.

Say that in the future you have some other person who wants to kill someone, evade capture, and have it be somewhat moral.  Aha!  Let’s go back in time and kill a serial killer, but before they’ve done anything (when it will be easier).  This person goes back in time to kill Hitler, starts talking to him – discovers how much they have in common and the two commit many murders together as the best of friends.  History Reboots.

Say that happens again – and again (with many reboots).  With increased numbers, what started as a lone killer, turns into a friendship, turns into a gang, which turns into a political party, which turns into a mass movement as all of the future world’s psychopaths travel to 1920s Germany.  Their deep interest in murder morphs into Naziism (as something they can all agree to).  With each new member they get stronger, and draw ever more people to come nip them in the bud.

Not really sure how it ends, probably in something pacifistic, perhaps with a paean to salesmanship.