20 Predictions

Bearing in mind the Pundit’s Fallacy, here they are:

  1. Iran will work itself out fairly peacefully.
  2. Executions will increase in the US as people realize that DNA testing and soon to be omnipresent surveillance makes it ever more likely to be executing the right person.
  3. Surveillance cameras will proliferate, people will complain, but they will not alter their behavior at all.
  4. Animal right and environmental groups will turn violent.
  5. As the legacy of campaign finance reform grows ever uglier, term limits for politicians will make a comeback.
  6. Social Security will not be altered in the next five years. It will transform into a general welfare programs for the elderly in 15 years
  7. Marijuana will be legalized on the state or county level as a tax product when some interest group like education or seniors discovers a way to exclusively reap the tax receipts.
  8. Jews will leave Europe for America and Israel.
  9. Saudi Arabia will become increasingly isolated in the world.
  10. China will buy or “assume responsibility” for part of Siberia.
  11. Japan will change it’s constitution to re-arm itself.
  12. India will overtake China as the dominant Asian economy, though China will be a very significant player.
  13. Chechnya and Russia resume their very ugly war.
  14. Indian Medical Vacations kick off the start of a thriving global medical treatment market as people travel to lower cost medical treatment. Also a domestic medical black market will develop for surgery and treatment.
  15. While their democracy holds the Palestinians don’t accomplish much. On the other hand, the Lebanese will thrive.
  16. The US government will forcibly medicate all of it’s prisoners with mood altering and tranquilizing drugs.
  17. The battle over abortion will be overtaken by legal fights over decisions made at the beginning and end of life.

    The beginning of life will start with prohibitions on smoking by pregnant women, unapproved prenatal care, etc and will end with genetic testing and an “approved” lifestyle for pregnant women.

    The end of life fight will begin when government picks up more than 80% of the cost of health care and someone discovers the disproportionate amount spent on health care for the last few months of life. The right to die question becomes the number one question at this point.

  18. Many forms of congenital birth defects and diseases vanish from the population as genetic testing improves and people selectively abort non-optimum fetuses. This will have the unintended consequence of a vicious generational conflict down the road.
  19. Higher energy prices prompt a move to nuclear power and the importance of Middle Eastern oil is diminished slightly.
  20. The EU will be largely irrelevant, the UK and Eastern nations will eventually move away from binding commitments to the larger whole..

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