I’m honestly not sure of the outcome. Were I betting, I would say the consensus opinion is wrong, and the Republicans hold on to both houses by a tiny margin. If I remember correctly, the polls usually underestimate the effects of the Republican ground game. Also, widely held opinions on the future are usually wrong, most lately the 2006 hurricane season. The chattering classes have seen a gathering destiny over the Democratic party that I don’t think is there.
On another note, I am still quite please by the direction of the Dems this time around. Still very wrong with all the economic populism of course, but the baby boomer narcissism seems to be on it’s way out.
Speaking of that, John Kerry’s bit last week was (even if taken at face value) NOT insulting to the troops, it was condescending, which is why it had resonance as a criticism of him in particular and the Dems in general.