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The Tree
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One thing about Trump and the alt-right that has gone unsaid
The obvious (to me) parallel to the alt-right and trump is Obama’s “palling around with terrorists” in the 2008. It was a meaningless statement then, and the alt-right angle is meaningless this year, but meaninglessness hasn’t stopped anyone lately.
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Quote of the Friday edition
From Thomas Sowell
It may be expecting too much to expect most intellectuals to have common sense, when their whole life is based on their being uncommon — that is, saying things that are different from what everyone else is saying. There is only so much genuine originality in anyone. After that, being uncommon means indulging in pointless eccentricities or clever attempts to mock or shock.
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Trump, lack of strategists, and OODA loop
One unremarked advantage Trump had was the lack of political “infrastructure”, or the hordes of pollsters and consultants that surround candidates. That let him to push, not necessarily better ideas, but to float a tremendous number of ideas to the public at a rapid clip, keep the popular ones, ditch the unpopular and build a coalition off of what people liked at the time. All without having to vet everything through interest groups and campaign infrastructure.
Short version – he had a much faster OODA loop for his marketing.
In that sense – I think he will be a role model for other politicians – it’s eerily similar to an Adwords campaign now that I think about it.
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Quote of the day
From Garrett Hardin
Extremism appears to lead to clear-cut decisions, whereas moderation embarrasses us by emphasizing problems that are yet to be solved.
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In light of the recent election
This post has come to mind – peak religion.
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Predictions in retrospect
My Predictions in retrospect – it seems I was quite wrong – there was a hidden trump surge, either that, or pollsters underestimate the number of people living in low density areas.The real surprise was how LOW the voter turnout was, Trump got fewer votes than Romney, and Clinton will wind up with almost 10 MILLION FEWER votes than Obama in 2008. And that is after 4 and 8 years of population growth, respectively. It would seem to point to more of a Clinton loss than a Trump victory, which is probably what history will say about the matter. Clinton really was exceptionally unpopular with Democrats, or Obama was exceptionally popular with Democrats (or both). Article hereIt would seem that the popular media world (mirrored largely on Facebook) and the rest of the world do not track each other that well.And on a happier notes – voters chose not to return Joe Arpaio to Office and marijuana prohibition was largely struck down in several states! -
Predictions for Election 2016
- Clinton wins both Electoral College (by 80 points) and popular vote (by 5%) – there will be no hidden wave of Trump surge
- Republicans maintain control of the legislative branch
- A new Supreme Court justice is confirmed within the next 12 months with little pageantry
- Both of them have major health events in the next four years (we forget how old they are, and neither seem at all health conscious)
- The libertarians get 7% of the popular vote (and could have had much, much more)
- The Green Party gets less than 1%
- Evan McMullan (sp) becomes the new standard bearer of the party
- Utah becomes the bellwether for the 2020 campaign
Yours?
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Shadow people
At the zoo
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Quote of the day
It is plain that the core of his identity, his heart of hearts, is not that of a man who is black. It is that of a man who knows a whole lot more about things than you do and is intent on setting you straight, at length if necessary, if you’d only listen. Take a look at those glasses, that awkward grin, those sweater-vests, and consider his deep interest in Albert Einstein and other geniuses: Thomas Sowell is less an African American than a Nerd American.